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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-06-25T05:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-25T05:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31695/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption. The filament extended from approximately N15W55 to S30W15 on the disk, with liftoff seen starting around 2024-06-24T21:40Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T09:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Issued: 2024 Jun 26 1231 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40626
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Jun 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
....
Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 05:24 UTC on June 25th.
The CME is directed primarily to the west from the Earth's perspective and is associated with a large filament eruption that took place in the southwestern quadrant around 02:00 UTC on June 25th. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, glancing blow arrival could be possible from late on June 28.
Two small filament eruptions were observed on June 25. The first eruption was detected at 11:37 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 data from the southeast quadrant.
The second eruption occurred at 22:18 UTC near the disc center. Associated CMEs can be seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 13:25 UTC on June 25 and 00:00 UTC on June 26. Analysis of the CMEs is ongoing, but due to their origin locations, these CMEs may have an Earth-directed component.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Lead Time: 43.35 hour(s)
Difference: -14.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-06-26T13:48Z

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